Overview
After seven months of inaction, Maine Governor Janet Mills (D) surprised Wall Street analysts by allowing legislation that authorizes iGaming to move forward. Mills will let the bill, LD 1164, become law without her signature.
Core Provisions of LD 1164
LD 1164 grants iGaming exclusivity to four tribes within the Wabanaki Nation.
- Three of the tribes have pre-existing ties to Caesars Entertainment.
- The fourth, the Passamaquoddy Tribe, has an ongoing relationship with DraftKings.
Market Expectations and Likely Beneficiaries
J.P. Morgan analyst Daniel Politzer and Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas both expected Caesars Entertainment and DraftKings to be the primary beneficiaries of the law.
“At this time, it’s unclear if additional igaming operators will operate in Maine,” wrote Politzer.
Jonas characterized Mills’s decision to refrain from signing or vetoing as both unexpected and a modest positive for the state’s gaming industry. He projected a Caesars/DraftKings duopoly in Maine iGaming, writing, “It’s unclear if more digital operators could gain access in the future, but for now we assume all others could be shut out.”
Opposition and Political Headwinds
Opponents of LD 1164 included FanDuel, Fanatics Betting & Gaming, and BetMGM, none of which operate in Maine. Other detractors included Hollywood Bangor and Oxford Casino, state regulators, and the National Association Against iGaming (NAAiG).
The two brick-and-mortar operators, Hollywood Bangor and Oxford Casino, warned that iGaming legalization could cost 200 jobs.
NAAiG polling showed:
- 64 percent of Maine residents opposed to iGaming.
- 51 percent of voters likely to hold iGaming against supportive lawmakers.
An NAAiG-sponsored campaign to repeal LD 1164 is already underway.
Impact on Land-Based Casinos and Parent Companies
Regarding brick-and-mortar operators, Jonas predicted a “very modest to immaterial negative” impact for Penn Entertainment, which operates in Bangor, and for Churchill Downs, which owns Oxford Casino.
He noted that the two casinos were minor contributors to their parent corporations’ 2025 revenue:
- Hollywood Bangor generated one percent of Penn’s revenue.
- Oxford contributed three percent of Churchill Downs’ revenue.
Tax Structure and Expected Launch Timing
LD 1164 mandates an 18 percent tax rate, which Politzer deemed attractive. He expected Maine iGaming to launch no later than early 2027.
Broader Legislative Landscape
Jonas stated that no iGaming legalizations were expected in 2026. He added that Maine’s shift made it “interesting to see if Maine is a one-off or a sign of more to come.” States currently considering iGaming-related bills include Virginia, New York, and Nebraska, which is considering online sports wagering.
Market Size and Player Economics
Politzer estimated Maine iGaming could become a $200-million-per-year industry. He projected annual winnings of $175 to $225 per player in the Pine Tree State, which has an adult population of 1.1 million.
He noted that iGaming-enabled states average $370 per year in win from players, but said Maine may be more comparable to:
- West Virginia ($266 per player per year)
- Delaware ($172)
- Connecticut ($257)
Although Caesars has more tribal ties, DraftKings currently captures 80 percent of Maine’s online sports betting (OSB) business.
Operator Financial Upside Estimates
Based on his assumptions, Politzer forecast cash-flow increases of:
- $20 million to $30 million for DraftKings
- $10 million to $20 million for Caesars
He emphasized that these projections depended on the market share each operator ultimately captures.
Jonas offered more conservative estimates, projecting:
- $55 million in iGaming revenue in Year One
- Growth to $120 million in revenue by 2030
Maine’s official tax projections assume even lower revenue, resulting in anticipated levies of:
- $1.8 million in the current fiscal year (from revenue of $10 million)
- $3.6 million in the next fiscal year
Jonas also observed that Maine generated OSB revenues of $59 million in 2025 and $50 million the year prior, adding, “Igaming revenues are typically 3-4x OSB in like states.”
Deutsche Bank Outlook: Higher Ceiling Scenarios
Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella outlined a larger possible iGaming market, predicting a mature-market annual haul of $236 million, potentially as high as $482 million. His forecast assumed a 30 percent market share for Caesars and 70 percent for DraftKings.
“Overall, we believe the digital stocks should react positively to this news, as we have an incremental legalized iCasino state, that we believe few were expecting. In addition, while it might be tough to get incremental iCasino legalization post Maine, we believe a key aspect of this is it allows investors to envision a potential domino effect, believing other states legalize, especially in the Northeast region,” wrote Pizzella.
Existing Tribal Sports Betting Framework
Maine’s Wabanaki tribes have offered OSB since 2023. Under that framework:
- Caesars partnered with the Mi’kmaq and Penobscot nations and the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians.
- DraftKings partnered with the Passamaquoddy Tribe.
Timing of Analyst Commentary
Jonas’s, Pizzella’s and Politzer’s views were expressed in investor notes published December 9.