Bitcoin bear market rally risk: why BTC bulls are watching the $101,000 level

Bitcoin (BTC) price action in 2026 is being compared to a previous bear market phase, based on analysis from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant. The core claim is that Bitcoin is still trading below its 365 day moving average, which CryptoQuant treats as a key trend filter for identifying bear market conditions. This framing matters for market participants because short term rebounds can occur inside broader downtrends, and the next test of the 365 day moving average near $101,000 is being presented as a critical level for confirming whether the rebound has strength or is likely to fail.

This article is written for readers who want a clear explanation of CryptoQuant’s argument and the specific indicators it cites. The core problem is how to interpret a strong BTC rebound when longer term trend measures and exchange flow data may still signal bear market risk.

What is a “bear market rally” in Bitcoin, and why does it matter?

A bear market rally is a sharp price rebound that happens during a broader downtrend. A bear market rally matters because it can look like a trend reversal, but it can also fail and lead to further downside. CryptoQuant describes the current move as follows: “Bitcoin has risen 21% since November 21 in what appears to be a ‘bear market rally,’” (CryptoQuant). The point of the label is not that a rebound is impossible to sustain, but that additional confirmation is required before treating the move as a lasting recovery.

CryptoQuant’s warning is built on the idea that trend context determines how much weight to give short term strength. In this view, a rally that occurs while Bitcoin remains below a key long term moving average is less reliable than a rally that reclaims and holds above that moving average. This leads directly to the focus on the 365 day moving average and the $101,000 area.

Why the 365 day moving average is central to CryptoQuant’s bear market comparison

The 365 day moving average (MA) is a long term trend indicator that averages Bitcoin’s price over the last 365 days. CryptoQuant uses the 365 day MA as a threshold for determining whether Bitcoin is in a bear market phase. In its Weekly Report issued Friday, CryptoQuant stated: “The price of Bitcoin fell by 19% as it confirmed the start of a bear market after crossing below its 365-day moving average (MA). Since then, it has rallied by 19% to as high as $97.9K, approaching its 365-day MA that sits at $101K,” (CryptoQuant).

This description contains three factual elements that define the current setup in CryptoQuant’s framework. First, Bitcoin crossed below the 365 day MA, which CryptoQuant interprets as confirming the start of a bear market. Second, the price declined by 19% after that cross. Third, the price then rallied by 19% to as high as $97.9K and is approaching the 365 day MA near $101,000. CryptoQuant’s conclusion is that the market is now at a decision point where the moving average acts as a major trendline that either gets reclaimed or rejects price.

Why $101,000 is being treated as a key resistance level for BTC

CryptoQuant places added emphasis on the $101,000 area because it aligns with the 365 day moving average. In practical terms, a moving average at that level can act as resistance in a downtrend because many traders and systematic strategies treat it as a trend boundary. The analysis also notes that this area already contains multiple resistance hurdles, which increases the importance of how price behaves if it reaches or tests that zone.

In CryptoQuant’s framing, the immediate question is whether Bitcoin can clear and hold above the 365 day MA rather than briefly touching it. A decisive reclaim would weaken the bear market rally thesis, while a rejection would strengthen the comparison to prior bear market behaviour. This is why the rebound to $97.9K is described as “approaching” the 365 day MA rather than confirming a reversal.

How CryptoQuant compares 2026 price behaviour to the 2022 bear market

CryptoQuant argues that the current sequence resembles a pattern seen in 2022. It described the earlier episode as follows: “A similar scenario played out in 2022, as the previous bear market unfolded. The Bitcoin price declined by 27% after crossing below its 365-day MA, to then rally by 47%, and be rejected at its 365-day MA,” (CryptoQuant). The comparison is intended to show that large countertrend rallies can occur after a breakdown below the 365 day MA, but still fail at the same moving average when the broader trend remains bearish.

CryptoQuant also adds context about market sentiment during that period: “At the time, many market participants believed the bear market was over, the four-year cycle was invalidated, and a super-cycle was imminent, sentiment not unlike what we’re seeing today,” (CryptoQuant). The implication is that sentiment can shift quickly during rallies, but CryptoQuant’s preferred indicators may still classify the environment as bearish.

What CryptoQuant says about trend and “fundamental and technical indicators”

CryptoQuant’s conclusion is explicit and does not rely on implied interpretation. It stated: “However, fundamental and technical indicators still point out that we remain in a bear market,” (CryptoQuant). In this context, the article’s cited indicators include the 365 day moving average and exchange inflow data. CryptoQuant treats these as evidence that short term price strength should not be over weighted when longer term trend measures have not been reclaimed.

This is an important distinction for readers because it separates two different questions. One question is whether Bitcoin can rally, which it has done in the described period. The other question is whether the rally changes the broader market regime, which CryptoQuant argues has not yet happened because the price remains below the 365 day MA and other signals may indicate selling pressure.

What exchange inflows mean, and what CryptoQuant observed this week

Bitcoin exchange inflows refer to the amount of BTC moving into exchange wallets over a given period. In general market analysis, higher inflows can be interpreted as a sign that more holders are positioning to sell, because exchanges are common venues for spot selling and derivatives margining. CryptoQuant summarised its observation as follows: “Total Bitcoin flowing into exchanges has picked up to a 7-day average of 39K BTC today, the largest inflow volume since November 25, 2025. Higher inflows to exchanges can indicate escalating selling pressure ahead,” (CryptoQuant).

This observation is presented as a risk signal for bulls because it suggests that some market participants may be sending BTC to exchanges during the rebound. CryptoQuant’s framing is conditional rather than absolute. It states that higher inflows can indicate selling pressure, not that they always do. The analytical purpose is to highlight that the rebound is occurring alongside an increase in exchange inflows, which may be inconsistent with a clean transition into a sustained uptrend.

Practical ways to interpret the $101,000 test without assuming a guaranteed outcome

A neutral way to use CryptoQuant’s framework is to treat the 365 day moving average near $101,000 as a decision level and then watch for confirmation. This approach does not assume that price must reject or must break through, but it makes the criteria explicit.

A practical checklist based on the cited research is:

1. Identify whether BTC is still below the 365 day moving average, because CryptoQuant treats that as bear market context.
2. Monitor whether BTC reaches the moving average area near $101,000, because CryptoQuant highlights that level as the current trend boundary.
3. Watch whether BTC clears and holds above the moving average, because CryptoQuant’s 2022 comparison focuses on rejection at the moving average.
4. Track exchange inflows, because CryptoQuant notes a 7 day average of 39K BTC and states that higher inflows can indicate escalating selling pressure.

This checklist is designed to translate the research claims into observable conditions, without adding new forecasts beyond what is stated in the source.

Fan out topics you can explore next

The analysis in this report naturally leads to several follow on topics that can be expanded into separate, self contained articles:

• How the 365 day moving average is calculated, and how it differs from other long term trend filters.
• What counts as a “reclaim” of a moving average in systematic trading, including closes, retests, and time above the level.
• How exchange inflows are measured onchain, and what limitations exist when interpreting inflows as sell intent.
• How bear market rallies differ from trend reversals in Bitcoin market structure.
• How multi resistance zones form around major moving averages, and how traders define confluence.

What to watch next, based on CryptoQuant’s stated risks

CryptoQuant’s research implies that the next phase depends on whether Bitcoin can overcome the 365 day moving average near $101,000 and whether exchange inflows remain elevated. The immediate change to watch is whether price approaches the moving average and then either breaks through or rejects, because CryptoQuant’s 2022 comparison centres on rejection at the same trend measure.

From the flow side, the key variable is whether the 7 day average exchange inflow remains near the cited level of 39K BTC or continues to rise, because CryptoQuant links higher inflows with potentially escalating selling pressure. This does not define a guaranteed direction, but it does define what CryptoQuant considers inconsistent with a straightforward bullish continuation.

FAQ: Bitcoin bear market rally risk and the $101,000 level

What does CryptoQuant mean by a Bitcoin “bear market rally” in 2026?

CryptoQuant described the move as: “Bitcoin has risen 21% since November 21 in what appears to be a ‘bear market rally,’” (CryptoQuant). In this usage, it means a strong rebound that can occur even while broader indicators still classify the market as bearish.

Why is the 365 day moving average important for BTC trend analysis?

CryptoQuant treats a cross below the 365 day moving average as confirming a bear market phase. It also stated that BTC is approaching the 365 day MA “that sits at $101K,” (CryptoQuant), making that level a key trend boundary.

What happened after BTC crossed below the 365 day moving average, according to CryptoQuant?

CryptoQuant stated: “The price of Bitcoin fell by 19% as it confirmed the start of a bear market after crossing below its 365-day moving average (MA). Since then, it has rallied by 19% to as high as $97.9K,” (CryptoQuant).

How does CryptoQuant compare 2026 to the 2022 bear market?

CryptoQuant stated: “The Bitcoin price declined by 27% after crossing below its 365-day MA, to then rally by 47%, and be rejected at its 365-day MA,” (CryptoQuant). The comparison is used to show that rallies can fail at the same long term moving average.

What does a rise in Bitcoin exchange inflows indicate?

CryptoQuant stated: “Higher inflows to exchanges can indicate escalating selling pressure ahead,” (CryptoQuant). It also reported a 7 day average of 39K BTC as the largest inflow volume since November 25, 2025.

Does this analysis provide investment advice?

No. This content summarises research claims and reported figures from CryptoQuant and explains the indicators referenced. It does not provide investment advice or recommendations.